On 15 March 2019, the first “Connecting Eurasia Dialogue: From the Atlantic to the Pacific” was held in Brussels, at Europe’s political heart. The event was organized by the Roscongress Foundation and the Conoscere Eurasia Association with the support of the Association of European Businesses and the Belgian-Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce. Amid the current political cooldown, this was a unique gathering, enabling a high-level dialogue on trade, economic, and integration issues among stakeholders from the wider Eurasian space, including the European Union (EU), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and China. The focus of high-level policy makers and top business executives attended the Dialogue was on challenges and opportunities of the EU’s engagement with the EAEU, harmonization of soft infrastructure to enhance trans-Eurasian connectivity, and the EAEU’s single pharmaceutical market. This IIASA discussion paper provides a summary of the deliberations, supported by research from inside and outside the Institute.
The Kyrgyz Republic became the fifth member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on August 12, 2015. In order to become a “full” member this country at a certain degree had to harmonize and change its legislation in accordance with the basic provisions of the Union legal acts.
The article determines and systematizes concordance of national technical regulations and EAEU (Customs Union) technical regulations. The research focuses on non-tariff measures (NTMs) applied by the Kyrgyz Republic in light of the Eurasian economic integration.
UNCTAD’s database (TRAINS/WITS database) was used in order to analyze national NTMs. In total 218 actively applied NTMs were analyzed. Most of them are import-related technical measures (Sanitary and phytosanitary measures – SPS, and Technical barriers to trade - TBT) and export-related (technical and licensing/authorization) measures. In addition to composition of the Kyrgyz national NTMs, author revealed their correspondence to main principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO): most-favored nation and national treatment clause.
Thus our research revealed that measures which are viewed as barriers may not only hinder the trade of the Kyrgyz Republic with the third countries, but also may slow down the integration processes within the EAEU. The research on this matter can be further developed.
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is relatively new regional integration block formed in the beginning of 2015 and now consists of five members (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia). The main document that establishes the basic principles of the functioning of the EAEU is the Agreement on EAEU that also covers the specifics of application of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on a very aggregate level. Overall NTMs adopted within EAEU are equally applied by the members of the Union. But still these measures may find their reflection in the national legislation of the member-states.
In order to analyze EAEU NTMs two sources of information were used: website of the Eurasian Economic Commission and TRAINS/WITS database. They were used as complements and allowed to find the most up to date versions of the legal acts that cover trade- and NTM-related aspects of EAEU functioning.
The Republic of Kazakhstan became one of the first members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) that was formed on January 1, 2015. As a full member this country had to change its legislation in accordance with the EAEU legal acts. This article is devoted to non-tariff measures (NTMs) applied by the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of the Eurasian economic integration. The importance of NTM research is defined by the fact that excessive regulatory policies may result in decreased growth rates of economy and overall loss of welfare. UNCTAD’s database (TRAINS/WITS database) was used in order to analyze national NTMs. In total 239 national actively applied NTMs were analyzed and systematized. Most of them are either import-related technical measures (Technical barriers to trade - TBT, Sanitary and phytosanitary measures - SPS measures) or export-related technical measures. Together they account for approximately 94.8% of applied national NTMs. In addition to the analysis of NTMs in terms of their type and type of affected product, author revealed the correspondence of Kazakhstan’s national NTMs to basic principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO): most-favored nation (MFN) and national treatment clause. Thus our research determined measures that represent a violation of MFN principle or national treatment clause. So these NTMs may be barriers to trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan with the other countries. Further research of ad valorem equivalents (AVE) of the measures is required in order to determine the economic effects of the non-tariff measures applied by the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The technological foresight plays a significant role in promotion of the emerging technologies. The paper investigates technological prospects of priorities implementation indicated in the ‘Strategy for the Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation’. More precisely, we examine the advanced digital and intelligent production technologies deployment by applying foresight methods and new solutions such as an advanced text-mining. The main goal of the study is to define a range of the most promising technologies with respect to markets and products within the priority. We identified five large cross-cutting areas manifesting physical and digital convergence. These clusters include computer modelling and flexible manufacturing systems from the production side, and sensor technologies, virtual/augmented reality, the Internet of Things from the IT side. The revealed technological trends correspond to global patterns and unveil a range of sectoral applications. Product development technologies are confessed to be the core of digital manufacturing. During the analysis we uncovered 350 prospective products and services that should be exposed to further expert evaluation. Our results offer a new insight on science and technology policy-making by adjusting technology development across industries. A suggested framework allows expanding current boundaries of forecasting activities at the national level in order to boost Russian scientific performance.
This article is dedicated to the urgent problem of forming a new strategy for the development of the international oil and gas business in the context of the global impact of innovative technology. The authors have identified a complex and multi-aspect nature of the interconnection between innovation and economic development. One should note that modern models of economic growth and development of the international oil and gas business which are aimed at the adequate reflection of reality should necessarily take into account the phenomenon of innovation and their diffusion as well as consider an innovation factor as both endogenous and exogenous variables. However, at present, separate sub-sectors of the Russian fuel and energy complex operate in the regime of both moral and physical deterioration of their production and resource potential. It was revealed that in order for the oil and gas business to act as a single entity and provide a synergetic effect in achieving energy and economic national security, it had the necessary organisational basis for its sustainable development, it is advisable to form a mechanism for coordinating the interests of the state and business in the development of the oil and gas complex. The coordinator of interests should be a state that is able to develop and implement a single integrated program for the development of the oil and gas industry and to influence on its segments to harmonise and stabilise development in the long term. The degree of the state participation, the instruments of its indirect impact on the functioning and development of the oil and gas business are, first of all, called upon to ensure the proper level of energy security of the state, taking into account both endogenous and exogenous factors in the development of the oil and gas complex.
The development of the Eurasian Union is becoming increasingly dynamic in the economy, trade and geopolitics. However, its potential is far from being exhausted. The article elaborates what tasks the EAEU should solve in order to remain in demand as an integration bloc.
International trade is in continuous development which means there must also be responsive developments in the international economic institutions which regulate it. The authors conclude that the initiatives of international organizations in the global regulation of e-commerce are far behind business practices. Despite the dynamic development of the digital economy, international institutions have not yet been able to work out control mechanisms at the multilateral level. Therefore, today the World Trade Organization (WTO) and a number of other international organizations are faced with the need to develop new mechanisms for regulating trade in conditions of digitalization. This will largely depend not only on the new rules of trade policy, but also on the future of these organizations and their placement in the hierarchy of influence of international institutions.
This article illustrates that countries are able to regulate various aspects of e-commerce more comprehensively at the bilateral and plurilateral levels. The use of digital trade regulations developed at the regional and plurilateral levels, as well as the cooperation of countries in other fora— Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Group of 20 (G20) — may facilitate the creation of future WTO agreements governing digital trade.
Notwithstanding plenty of concepts and opportunity to apply modern analysis techniques, within the economic papers and expert reports arguments based on relatively simple static models are commonly used whilst assessing the influence of international trade on welfare. Those models vastly lack features of the dynamic models, which take into account long-term effects of innovations and protectionist trade measures.
The article successively reviews current international trade trends and traditional concepts concerning its regulation. It is noted that American protectionist policy, new wave of which emerged in 2017 resulted in tense foreign economic relations between the USA and its partners, crucially the EU and China. This led to debates on new trade wars among academics and experts.
In order to suggest models of international trade which are persuasive for general public and politicians, drawbacks of the static approach, and benefits of the dynamic analysis involving various aspects of long-term economic growth and technological progress are considered. The analysis of international trade embedded into J. Schumpeter’s concepts of innovations and creative destruction is carried out. The conclusion is made regarding the need to develop dynamic models for international trade analysis. Compared to static models, dynamic ones are more precise in terms of estimating public losses due to protectionist measures and on the contrary, gains due to free trade
Over the past three decades, the political climate and economic prosperity of the European continent largely have depended on the state of interaction between Russia and the EU. The legal basis for mutual trade and economic cooperation, laid down in the Agreement on Partnership and Cooperation, was subsequently supplemented. Russia's accession to the WTO has expanded the legal basis of bilateral relations. At the same time, the economic (financial crisis of 2008–2009) and political (confrontation in Georgia, Eastern Partnership, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the EU) have created problems and effectively anuled all previous achievements and the positive effects of the original agreements, calling into question the very possibility of bringing the partnership to a new level. The purpose of this article is to analyze the key barriers to the development of cooperation at the present stage, the role of the political factor, as well as the state of trade disputes and prospects for the development of cooperation.
The governments of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union should set an ambitious goal of creating a powerful, innovative and competitive union-wide complex of the rare earth industry. Its implementation is ideally suited as one of the "flagship" projects of the EAEU, which are now actively discussing and looked for in the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) and in the scientific expert community of the Union countries. Moreover, there are a lot of strong arguments in favor of the success of the development of the union-wide complex of the rare earth industry.
While the number of non-tariff barriers in the world is rising, the EAEU is pursuing a decrease of NTBs – and alignment of technical standards with the EU. However, immediate benefits to European companies have not yet materialised.
The author suggests a hypothesis that the choice of the model of integration may be a more important implication for a country’s future than estimated figures of the economic benefits and losses for the concrete branches of the national economy. The focus of the proposed paper is in outlining the basic differences between the two models of the regional integration, represented by the EAEU and the EU. Thus, the fundamental differences in the essence of the models of cooperation should determine above all the readiness of the Eastern Partnership countries (EPCs) to be aligned or eventually to enter one of the two different unions
The global financial crisis of 2008-09 revealed a systemic deficit of financial regulation at the global level. This came as the result of the long process of "diffusion of power in favor of private actors" in the financial sector, as G. Underhill and X. Zhang put it. The power of the market and private interest became the major regulators at the global level, which made the system extremely unstable. The uncontrolled and disproportional growth of the financial sector led to the equally rapid increase in endogenous risks. What were these risks and how effectively did international institutions deal with them?
The main risks were the following:
- overleveraged banks that stimulated real estate bubbles and financial bubbles in general;
- ungrounded risks that bankers were systematically taking, making risk management strategies wrong;
- extremely inflated financiers' bonuses;
- new kinds of speculation due to blind spots in international financial legislation;
- insufficient connection between the financial sector and industries, together with distorted information about the demand and supply of money.
Most of these risks had a global origin but were dealt with on a national or regional level. The system was largely uncontrolled at the global level. Financial markets had long ago become transnational, while regulation and and supervision remained mostly national. Because of these gaps, the system became either unregulated or self-regulated, trends promoted by the liberalization of financial markets by states, using liberalization as a tool to attract investment. For this reason, the need for global financial governance was felt more than ever. Yet attempts to create a truly independent global supervisory body encountered the opposition of lobbyists from nation-states, regional organizations and financial institutions. Being interested in 'carte blanche' and the preservation of the existing gaps between national laws,they were unlikely to let an effective system of global financial governance be established.
As in any other area, better global financial governance means setting up a system of legitimate institutions; using adequate and effective instruments and measures; relying on efficient systems of monitoring and control over the financial networks and last, but not least - ensuring that the interest and the will of the actors complies with the adopted set of requirements. This Chapter analyzes these aspects to provide the ground for assessing the emerging system's relative efficiency.
Involvement in the global innovation system and the level of ICT influence the technologicalstateoftheBrazil,Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries and their position in the world economy. Many studies were inspired that examined these economies from various prospective. However, only a few have specially focused on information and communication technologies (ICT), and particularly in services sectors. This paper aims to contribute to the analysis of the evolution of services ICT systems in BRICS. The main hypothesis of the article is that BRICS has made significant progress in economic cooperation, at the same time, the group has not been equally successful in designing and implementing their own agenda in the technology field. The BRICS are not released at a sufficient level of interaction and advocacy in ICT services, which would increase their role in international trade. The authors observe the retrospective of the process of formation of national innovation systems of thecountry participants of BRICS, consider current trends and challenges in the development of national markets for these services in each member country,and highlight future directions for the development. Then they provide an analysis of BRICS countries’ participation in the international ICT services trade. An estimation of revealed comparative advantage indicators allowed determining the dynamics in comparative advantage for ICT service trade in BRICS. Despite the increase in the volumeof export operations in the trade in ICT services, their level of competitiveness is declining. The most vulnerable to the reduction of revealed comparative advantage was India, at the same time Brazil and South Africa showed the least volatile dynamics. It is argued that the policies aimed at promoting investment and enhancing conditions for trade in ICT services contributed significantly to services exports expansion in BRICS. Based on the analysis, a conclusion is made about the current problems and insufficient level of technical cooperation within the group.